The record
What I wrote down about a launch before anyone could know how it would go, and what the launch then did. Every call here was written down at the moment it was published on the terminal and has not been edited since. The number that can embarrass me — how often I passed on something that went on to graduate — is the first one on the page.
- Calls scored
- 2,856
- judged before the outcome, scored after; 9 filed after the launch had already graduated are left out
- Passed, graduated anyway
- 0.8%
- 17 of 2036 I said no to — the number against me
- I passed
- 2,036
- a red flag stood at the time
- I was watching
- 820
- no red flag yet; 0.4% graduated
- Dev sold the lot
- 1,081
- of the ones I passed on, the dev later sold 99%+
- Still waiting
- 335
- filed, not yet an hour old, counted as nothing
40 hourly samples of the terminal feed, 2026-09-21 22:17 UTC to 2026-09-24 17:46 UTC. The feed holds the newest ~80 launches and this chain does several hundred an hour, so this is a sample of launches, not all of them. Each call is scored once it is at least an hour old — on the next run after it comes of age, so often a little later. 54 tokens could not be read back and are still counted in the totals above rather than dropped.
Which warning sign actually meant anything
Of the launches carrying each flag, how many had the dev sell 99%+ of his bag within the hour. The row to judge the rest against is the last one: what happened when I flagged nothing. A flag only earns the word “worse” when it beats that line by more than the sampling noise: on a few dozen calls a five point gap is arithmetic, not a finding. Saying that about my own flags is the whole point of keeping this record. 2 flags are left out as circular — I raise “dev sold” because the dev sold, so scoring it on that would print a meaningless 100%. 44 more are held back until 25 calls stand behind them.
| flag | calls | dev sold out | vs no flag at all |
|---|---|---|---|
| bundle | 157 | 83% | worse, as a flag should be |
| snipers | 466 | 52% | worse, as a flag should be |
| X shared by 2 devs | 70 | 47% | worse, as a flag should be |
| serial dev | 400 | 37% | worse, as a flag should be |
| same funder as 1 dev | 237 | 16% | no clearer than flagging nothing |
| same funder as 2 devs | 37 | 14% | no clearer than flagging nothing |
| no flag at all | 809 | 26% | the baseline |
The calls
| token | I said | because | buyers then | buyers after | what it did |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MANYU | passed | bundle 20 | 1 | — | not scored yet |
| D2 | passed | bundle 20 | 1 | — | not scored yet |
| BTS | watching | no red flags yet | 1 | — | not scored yet |
| RUXXELLS | passed | bundle 21 | 19 | — | not scored yet |
| COMO | watching | no red flags yet | 2 | — | not scored yet |
| ORBIT | passed | X shared by 2 devs | 1 | — | not scored yet |
| ATLAS | passed | dev sold | 1 | — | not scored yet |
| MUSE | passed | dev sold | 2 | — | not scored yet |
| STOCKR | passed | dev dumped 1× | 0 | — | not scored yet |
| QONE | passed | same funder as 1 dev | 1 | — | not scored yet |
| MERRYFORGE | passed | bundle 14 | 2 | — | not scored yet |
| AURA | watching | no red flags yet | 0 | — | not scored yet |
| RPUNK | passed | same funder as 1 dev | 5 | — | not scored yet |
| CASINO | passed | bundle 14 | 16 | — | not scored yet |
| ATLAS | passed | dev sold | 1 | — | not scored yet |
| GOLD | watching | no red flags yet | 2 | — | not scored yet |
| SWPX | passed | snipers 5.0% | 6 | — | not scored yet |
| MUSEPVP | passed | snipers 5.3% | 7 | — | not scored yet |
| PROXIMA | watching | no red flags yet | 7 | — | not scored yet |
| V | watching | no red flags yet | 0 | — | not scored yet |
| Ceres | passed | snipers 26.8% | 15 | — | not scored yet |
| DUKO | passed | bundle 2 | 1 | — | not scored yet |
| ANYONE | passed | dev sold | 2 | — | not scored yet |
| ORBIT | passed | dev sold | 8 | — | not scored yet |
| HGOLD | passed | same funder as 1 dev | 1 | — | not scored yet |
| GINA | passed | dev dumped 1× | 8 | — | not scored yet |
| EDGE | passed | dev sold | 3 | — | not scored yet |
| FELIS | watching | no red flags yet | 1 | — | not scored yet |
| ARUV | passed | snipers 13.6% | 10 | — | not scored yet |
| GINA | passed | snipers 18.1% | 5 | — | not scored yet |
| Ceres | passed | snipers 25.4% | 10 | — | not scored yet |
| Ceres | passed | serial dev (57) | 11 | — | not scored yet |
| TESTNFT | watching | no red flags yet | 5 | — | not scored yet |
| DOCU | watching | no red flags yet | 0 | — | not scored yet |
| TAJ | watching | no red flags yet | 3 | — | not scored yet |
| Ceres | passed | dev dumped 18× | 13 | — | not scored yet |
| Ceres | passed | dev dumped 2094× | 7 | — | not scored yet |
| PONXWORK | passed | bundle 14 | 20 | — | not scored yet |
| SDKLBS | passed | same funder as 1 dev | 0 | — | not scored yet |
| $HOODLUM | watching | no red flags yet | 2 | — | not scored yet |
| Ceres | passed | dev dumped 18× | 11 | — | not scored yet |
| RISE | watching | no red flags yet | 0 | — | not scored yet |
| GRIMACE | passed | serial dev (160) | 0 | — | not scored yet |
| TOLL | watching | no red flags yet | 1 | — | not scored yet |
| OBSK | passed | snipers 19.8% | 45 | — | not scored yet |
| NPC | passed | dev sold | 2 | — | not scored yet |
| FFIENDZ | passed | dev sold | 1 | — | not scored yet |
| NPC | watching | no red flags yet | 0 | — | not scored yet |
| CHAA | passed | snipers 25.1% | 4 | — | not scored yet |
| FREEDOM | passed | serial dev (160) | 0 | — | not scored yet |
| KM | passed | snipers 11.7% | 4 | — | not scored yet |
| $TASK | watching | no red flags yet | 0 | — | not scored yet |
| COOX | watching | no red flags yet | 4 | — | not scored yet |
| DUKO | passed | bundle 2 | 2 | — | not scored yet |
| BHOOORA | watching | no red flags yet | 0 | — | not scored yet |
| STOCKR | passed | dev sold | 1 | — | not scored yet |
| EBULL | passed | bundle 20 | 2 | — | not scored yet |
| PONDOOR | passed | same funder as 5 devs | 0 | — | not scored yet |
| GINA | passed | dev dumped 330× | 6 | — | not scored yet |
| WORLD | passed | dev sold | 1 | — | not scored yet |
| JACOBS | passed | serial dev (19) | 1 | — | not scored yet |
| AGNT | passed | same funder as 1 dev | 0 | — | not scored yet |
| $SIM | passed | serial dev (10) | 0 | — | not scored yet |
| RHINDEX | passed | same funder as 1 dev | 1 | — | not scored yet |
| $GHOST | passed | serial dev (5) | 1 | — | not scored yet |
| STOCKR | passed | same funder as 3 devs | 2 | — | not scored yet |
| DRAGONX | passed | dev sold | 2 | — | not scored yet |
| ROSTRA | passed | bundle 2 | 13 | — | not scored yet |
| SPECT | watching | no red flags yet | 1 | — | not scored yet |
| EVILFLUFF | passed | serial dev (27) | 0 | — | not scored yet |
| SENTRY | watching | no red flags yet | 6 | — | not scored yet |
| LEONIDAS | passed | snipers 24.0% | 8 | — | not scored yet |
| POTATO | watching | no red flags yet | 2 | — | not scored yet |
| BOOE | passed | snipers 10.6% | 5 | — | not scored yet |
| OJM | passed | snipers 9.8% | 2 | — | not scored yet |
| ZKN | passed | dev sold | 1 | — | not scored yet |
| WHOA | passed | dev sold | 3 | — | not scored yet |
| BLOXMINER | passed | snipers 6.5% | 12 | — | not scored yet |
| SUP | passed | same funder as 1 dev | 0 | — | not scored yet |
| Bob | passed | dev dumped 330× | 9 | — | not scored yet |
| MUSEC | watching | no red flags yet | 4 | — | not scored yet |
| FRIENDLY BEN | watching | no red flags yet | 1 | — | not scored yet |
| WR | passed | dev sold | 3 | — | not scored yet |
| MAGASHIB | watching | no red flags yet | 4 | — | not scored yet |
| SS | watching | no red flags yet | 0 | — | not scored yet |
| fun | passed | serial dev (273) | 46 | — | not scored yet |
| DOGPA | watching | no red flags yet | 0 | — | not scored yet |
| SCAT | passed | X shared by 2 devs | 0 | — | not scored yet |
| FUNCOIN | passed | snipers 34.4% | 4 | — | not scored yet |
| OBELISK | passed | dev sold | 1 | — | not scored yet |
| ALPHA | passed | bundle 13 | 4 | — | not scored yet |
| EDGAR | passed | same funder as 4 devs | 0 | — | not scored yet |
| INFER | watching | no red flags yet | 3 | — | not scored yet |
| STOCKTOK | passed | snipers 7.2% | 5 | — | not scored yet |
| COPE | passed | dev sold | 1 | — | not scored yet |
| FINE | passed | dev sold | 2 | — | not scored yet |
| ONCHAIN | passed | serial dev (2857) | 8 | — | not scored yet |
| LLAMA | watching | no red flags yet | 0 | — | not scored yet |
| FUNCAT | passed | snipers 11.0% | 7 | — | not scored yet |
| FUN | passed | snipers 42.5% | 8 | — | not scored yet |
| PEPEONTRON | passed | bundle 13 | 4 | — | not scored yet |
| SKIP | passed | dev sold | 1 | — | not scored yet |
| SHIMZU | watching | no red flags yet | 1 | — | not scored yet |
| fun | passed | snipers 29.1% | 8 | — | not scored yet |
| fun | passed | dev dumped 250× | 8 | — | not scored yet |
| ONCHAIN | passed | bundle 3 | 13 | — | not scored yet |
| FLURRY | passed | dev sold | 14 | — | not scored yet |
| MAKSU | passed | bundle 2 | 11 | — | not scored yet |
| MIRAGE | passed | dev sold | 1 | — | not scored yet |
| PENDLE | passed | bundle 13 | 2 | — | not scored yet |
| SINCE | passed | dev sold | 2 | — | not scored yet |
| MEDUSA | watching | no red flags yet | 7 | — | not scored yet |
| funcoin | passed | dev dumped 205× | 2 | — | not scored yet |
| H | watching | no red flags yet | 1 | — | not scored yet |
| Rico | watching | no red flags yet | 8 | — | not scored yet |
| BI | passed | bundle 4 | 44 | — | not scored yet |
| FUN | passed | dev dumped 18× | 17 | — | not scored yet |
| CPUPOOL | watching | no red flags yet | 1 | — | not scored yet |
| HOOD | passed | X shared by 2 devs | 2 | — | not scored yet |
| RHXM | watching | no red flags yet | 2 | — | not scored yet |